Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Turnover Finale

Year 3 of the Turnover Study is completed (Save for Super Bowl XL), and the results are remarkably consistent with previous years. Here are the records for teams winning the turnover battle since 2003:

2003 = 165-40 for 80.5%
2004 = 168-41 for 80.3%
2005 = 159-42 for 79.1%

So, for the 3 seasons I have tracked the turnover battle, and its relation to the final outcome of the game, the record is as follows:

492-123 for 80% on the nose.

That is a pretty fair sample size, and a very consistent result.

And, by demand, I kept the specific record for each turnover result in 2005:

+6 = 1-0 100%
+5 = 10-0 100%
+4 = 20-0 100%
+3 = 19-4 83%
+2 = 41-11 79%
+1 = 68-27 72%

As you can see, every turnover you add to your advantage, your win % goes up.

How did turnovers affect the Cowboys? Well, when they were even or better, they won 8 out of 11 games. When they were minus on turnovers, they lost 4 out of 5.

Also, new this season is the 100 yard rusher stats. How does a team fare when having a RB run for 100 yards? Very well. Of the 138 times that a RB hit 100, 115 times (or 83%) his team won.


2005 Playoffs

Wildcard
Washington +2 beats Tampa Bay
New England +2 beats Jacksonville
Carolina +5 beats New York Giants (Carolina 100 yard rusher)
Pittsburgh +2 beats Cincinnati

Divisional
Seattle -2 beats Washington
Denver +4 beats New England
Pittsburgh -2 beats Indianapolis (the rare -2 road win)
Carolina Even beats Chicago

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh +4 beats Denver
Seattle +4 beats Carolina (Seattle 100 yard rusher)

Playoff Record: 7-2-1
100 yard rushers: 2-0
There. You don’t have to hear about it again until Labor Day.

Mavericks lack of assists point to a problem …honestly, I had no idea they had this big an issue, but I also don’t really care because I think this is the best Mavericks team I have seen since 1998 when I came to town…


At the start of Tuesday's play, the Mavericks ranked last in the NBA in assists. The Mavericks previously were last in assists in 1993-94 and 1994-95, going a combined 24-140 in those dreadful seasons.

Since the 1960-61 season, only one team has had a lower rate over a full year. The 1976-77 New York Nets, of "Super John" Williamson, had a 17.34 rate on the way to a 22-60 finish.

In their current style, the Mavericks go against the flow of NBA history. Teams that have a low assists rate traditionally vanish in the playoffs – if they even get that far.

In the last 20 seasons, the team that finished last in assists reached the playoffs five times. Three of those clubs won an opening-round series but were gone after two.


Jason Terry leads the Mavericks in assists with 3.6 a game. That ranks 43rd in the league, while Devin Harris is 2nd on the team with 3.3, which is good for 47th in the league. Steve Nash leads the league with 11.5 a game. But, I still like this team more than Nash’s Mavericks squads…

Suddenly, Bill Cowher is smarter than he used to be

Proving Newspaper theft is still pretty popular these days (despite the fact that now the internet exposes this timeless practice), The Dallas Morning News decides to do a feature on Coach Text messaging …Readers of this blog know that the Denver Post wrote this story on Saturday …I am sure it is a coincidence…

Tippett looks at the blue line


When asked if the defense's solid performance Monday was because the recently acquired Niinimaa was out with an ankle injury and the old pairs were together, Tippett balked.

"It was because of the way we played as a team, not who was in the lineup," Tippett said.

He did add that Niinimaa's assimilation will take time.

"You can't just dump somebody in and expect them to fit in perfectly," he said. "It's a process, and in the end, he will make us a better team."

But just like his team, Niinimaa will have to battle not only physical but mental barriers.


Well, I know the coach cannot kill his player’s confidence, but that is not a concern of mine. Niinimaa was awful on Friday against Tampa Bay, and I don’t care to see him out there unless someone on the back line gets hurt. Besides him, that is. As for the other side of that trade, John Erskine, I watched him last night in the Islanders loss to New Jersey. He looks like he is playing with a pretty bad hockey team now, and he is a -4 in 4 games on the Island after being -3 in 26 games with the Stars. He now wears #44, and I wish him well, but this trade was about 2 defensemen who needed a scenery adjustment…

Rangers bloggers commence typing! Juan Dominguez has missed a plane!


Oft-scolded RHP Juan Dominguez did not have a good start to 2006. Dominguez missed his scheduled flight from the Dominican Republic for the start of mini-camp.

Dominguez did, however, arrive in time to participate in Tuesday's workout. He is expected to contend for the No. 5 spot in the rotation.


This will send the usual suspects scurrying to their keyboards to demand the trade of Juan. Allow me to repeat what I wrote on 8/25:


So, here is Juan Dominguez dazzling in another start . He is 25 years old, and from all indications, he is a tough guy to figure out, has questionable work habits, and does not have it between the ears. Trouble is, all of those indications come either from Hart, Buck, or people who listen to Hart and Buck.

Clearly, Juan is not Buck’s type of player. He doesn’t appear to be a guy who will run through a wall for the team. He appears to simply be a guy with a great arm, and potentially great stuff. Then why, is he less regarded than Benoit, Wilson, and Loe, let alone, Danks, Diamond, and Volquez? Why am I convinced he will be making 30 starts for Doug Melvin soon if the Rangers give up on him?

Give him the pill every 5 days here. At least convince me that he can’t pitch. He may be a strange dude. So is Pedro Martinez. He may be a guy you have to babysit. So what? If he can pitch then you cannot afford to take him out with the trash. You have no pitchers! Let’s see more of him.


And again on 12/17:


60% Quality Start Percentage??? If he isn’t in the opening day rotation, this team needs its head examined. Dominguez may have his warts, but he also has the ability to be a dominant starter.


Hopefully, these two portions of previous blogs indicate where I stand on Juan missing a flight on Jan 24th…

Time once again for the “Dale Jr is back” features …How long will people continue to believe this crap?

Let me get this straight. Dale, Jr and Tony Eury split after 2004 because they cannot work well together. Then, Dale, Jr and Rondeau cannot work together, so Rondeau gets the hook. Then, Dale, Jr and Hmiel cannot work together, so the solution is to bring Eury back??? Genius. What do all of these problems have in common? Dale. He isn’t his daddy, and despite the fact that people insist on blaming everyone but him, I am not fooled. He is Kyle Petty, but with far better equipment to disguise his shortcomings. I can’t wait to find out whose fault it is in 2006. It certainly cannot be Dale’s fault…

And now, some hockey email from the last week:


Bobbo,

I have a very difficult question . . but first a backgrounder:

I really like Billy Guerin--both as a player and person. Met him a couple of times, have the signed Playoff Program that he signed from the Star's Wives suite next to our suite while he was injured . . .and on and on. And, yes, my wife would trade me to the Saskatoon Industrial League for him in a heartbeat.

The difficult question:
Is he on the list of highest paid/lowest performance athlete's to come through Dallas? Not to put it in the "Big bag of nothing" category, but the numbers are not good . . .

Thoughts?
Bob Barton


Look, Guerin is not having a good year by any stretch of the imagination. But, he was hired for 5 years. In his first 2, he scored 59 goals and 60 assists for 119 points in 146 games which is as good as anyone on the Stars during those two seasons. Then, year 3 was lost in the lockout. Now, in year 4, he is struggling for sure, but there is no way that 45 poor games in year 4 of a contract can put him anywhere near the highest paid/lowest performance Dallas athlete category for even the last 5 years!

Pierre Turgeon!
Chan Ho Park!
Raef Lafrentz!
Joey Galloway!
Shawn Bradley!

Don’t even try putting Guerin in that group. No way.


Bob the Sturminator,

Ok, I'm not knee jerking on this. I've harbored this feeling since the last playoff series two years ago and have been reluctant to voice it. But now it seems that there is a pattern. I really wonder if you can win the cup with a guy like Turco in net. I love him just as much as anyone. He's a great guy and very exciting to watch.

He seems to me like a guy that relies upon his athleticism to get him in a groove. He's not as much as a technician as some goalies and I wonder if that mindset holds him back. Guys like him have to rely on everything aligning and finding that zone. We they can't find that zone or are unable to maintain it they don't have anything to fall back on to pull themselves out of the rut. Some guys are so disciplined and consistent with their positioning etc. that they can work themselves out of a bad spot. I don't see Turco ever doing that. He's either on or off. When he's hot you can't touch him, but when he's not.....HEY NOW!

I just think he lacks focus sometimes and is a little too carefree out there. This is just something that bugs me. I don't have that confidence like I did in Belfour. You knew he was going to lock it down.

thanks,

Thad


Well, two things. #1, I am very concerned about what is between Marty Turco’s ears right now. I just wish that those thoughts of when Chuck Knoblauch could no longer throw the ball to first base would stop popping in my head every time he gives up a bad goal when the pressure is turned up on him. One can only hope this is merely a phase.

And #2, Ed Belfour is one of the great goalies of this generation. So, to compare Belfour to Turco is unfair to both of them. Turco must go quite a ways to make me forget the great Ed Belfour. Love Eddie the Eagle. Here’s to Ed.

26 comments:

vslicebornborn said...

So turnovers have a significant impact on who wins the game. I'll go ahead and file this under no sh*t.

AttnyDan said...

The only thing I have a problem with is how do you classify the turnovers. Forced or Unforced?

One arguement is that they are ALL unforced, since the QB could just take a knee every play.

The other side is that they are ALL forced since the offensive player is NOT trying to give the other team the ball.

We've all watched enough F-ball to know that there is fault sometimes and then sometimes not. Kinda like a more detailed breakdown Bob...I KID, I KID!!!!!

OCDdip said...

I still want to know if you are double counting double 100 yard rushers. I don't know of any time it happened beyond the WASH game, but you did double count it then. Obviously, it's not going to change much, but it's bad technique to count a win twice because they had 2 100 yard rushers.

Sturminator said...

Yes. I double counted 2 games, because I felt the question was how do 100 yard rushers affect an outcome. So, I treated each 100 yard rusher on his own. If you disagree, deduct 2 wins.

As for the others who do not care for the statistical analysis on this blog occasionally, whether it be turnovers, +/- in basketball, or quality starts in baseball, I suggest you just ignore it.

That seems pretty easy, really.

Love,

Bob

Fake Sturm said...

I guess the Kings got a little taste of life with Ron Artest. What a worthless human being this guy is. The Pacers finally get something put together after weeks of sitting on his ass, and he shoots it down for no reason at all. What is wrong with Sac (good nucleus with Bibby, Abdur-Rahim, Bonzi Wells, and Miller) and a pretty good franchise and a solid owner, the Maloof Bros (Fake Cuban). This guy is your cancer and I am so glad (and surprised) the Mavs have absolutely no interest.

vslicebornborn said...

Sturm was drawn offsides. 5 yard penalty...first down. Occasional stats are good strong as long as long as Norm isn't involved.

Anonymous said...

I care Bob, I care.

Anonymous said...

Hey in SMALL defense of Juan Dominguez and the Dominican Republic. If you've ever been there you know that they have very few paved roads and it's very difficult to get around the country. I remember being stopped in a traffic jam for 2 hours b/c a large cement truck broke down and on both sides of the road it was flooded. The airport is like 3 huts put together. No Joke.

Anonymous said...

Geez Bob, you were awfully sensitive today..PMS?

I love the Stats..promise.

Anonymous said...

True, but I think the Kings would be serious threats in the West with Artest. Peja has a major bag especially in the past couple of years. I am just saying, if this team gets healthy and Ron Artest, they could be a very dangerous first round opponent for a number one seed.

P1 Anon 10:49

Luis M said...

I wonder if Peja is hurt or disinterested? This would have really helped Indiana, Peja could have been the outside shot they are missing since Reggie's retirement. If Peja is not hurt and just wants out of Sac, man this could make Indiana a serious threat. Ron Artest said he was willing to sit out the year, what an idiot.

Cory said...

The Star Telegram had the text messaging article in November. I tried to get a link, but it's archived.

Fake Sturm said...

Peja is neither hurt or disinterested, he is in the final year of his contract. Sac has relatively no shot at keeping him after this year and are looking to bail. It will be extremely awkward now that he said he was "disrespected" by Sac after he thought the deal was done. Look for him to be moved before the deadline. But yes, Artest is still an idiot

MR said...

i miss the eagle too. i really enjoyed when he'd take his stick and jam it into the defenseman groin who was camped out in front of him. ah, the good ole days. most of us didnt know how good we had it with belfour.

Anonymous said...

indiana plus peja does not make them serious contenders. detroit is the only contender in the east barring some crazy injury.

and artest on sacremento would make them better on paper, but he would just create some other incident that would make them fall apart too?

this year its the mavs or spurs in the west and the pistons in the east....

Luis M said...

anyone in the east will have to go thru detroit, but i think peja in indiana puts them right there knocking on the door, similar to the how the mavs compare to the spurs. and i didnt question why sac would trade him by saying he is hurt or disinterested, but question why peja's scoring is down this year.

Anonymous said...

Barring a major injury, this current NBA season is the biggest foregone conclusion in all of sports that I can recall in several years. The Mavs may look good now, but playoff time is when it really counts. Barring catastrophe, it'll be the Spurs and Pistons again. You can book it now.

Anonymous said...

Not a major hockey fan but do watch most of the Stars game, I had never in my life noticed someone visibly sucking that bad that the common fan could notice as Niinimaa was playing Friday. Wow he looks overwhelmed, and it seems like he has no idea what to do with the puck so he holds onto it too long and rocket passes it at the last second to anyone wearing the same uniform as him. Is this who he is?

Chris said...

If Billy does not come out of his slump this season, he will join the group of bad high paid signings the stars have had, and that group is VERY small...

Sometimes BAD radio needs to focus more on results, than friendships

Fake Sturm said...

I think a little bit of injury and disinterest. And I think people have figured out that he will just stand around the 3 point line and jack up 3s. When is the last time you have seen him put it on the floor and take it to the bucket. The Pacers plus Peja is still well below the Pistons in my opinion.

Bill Howard said...

I'm a recent transplant from Dallas to Colorado, so I appreciate the blog, Bob, to keep me in the loop.

Went to the Avs-Flames game last night and I don't know if there's video, but there was an amusing attempt at a goalie fight at the end of the game. The Flames goalie had no defense in front of him all night and gave up seven goals - at least five of which were not his fault but rather because NOBODY picked up anyone down low and the Avs had a field day. Anyway, with about 30 seconds left, there was a scrum in front of the Avs' crease and Abiescher start shoving in the middle of it. You could see Sauve just say to himself, "the hell with it" and just take off down the ice and try to take out his frustration on Abby. Let's just say it didn't remind me of the good 'ol days of Ron Hextall. It was a pretty harmless fight and funny.

Luis M said...

well is it an injury that is keeping him from flooring the ball and taking it to the hoop? spot up 3 pt shooters are key role players on championship teams. who does Sac have inside that can command a double team? J.Oneal can play in the post. If he gets doubled, he has the passing skills to get the ball to Peja open behind the arc...and Ching Ching goes the money ball. That adds a dimension to the Pacers that they currently lack. Jasikevicius and Croshere are currently shooting slightly better then Peja from the 3 (Peja 39.7%, Croshere 40%, Jasikevicius 39.9%) but are shooting less 3 pointers.
Detriot is the team to beat, but that doesnt mean Indiana should just give up on the season. Do you expect the Pacers to lay down? Not to mention getting the Artest distraction off their shoulders....the no trade hurts the Pacers more then the Kings. Artest will not make them better.

Anonymous said...

yea, i think indiana should quit right now. they have no chance...it's the pistons year.

Luis M said...

good point! lets just start the championship now, Pistons vs Mavs will be a classic!

Anonymous said...

i almost agree with your dale jr hso. but he's better than kyle petty as a driver and i dont think his equipment is as good as you seem to think. but still, (and i've listened to him on the scanner at tms races) he expects to be as great as his dad and thinks he is but thinks his crew is holding him back. he very demanding of his crew to make him something he's not. have you read his book? many exampers of this in there.

Tommy Callahan said...

Chris:
I think BaD Radio does a great job of seperating friendship and performance. Maybe, if you weren't so quick to judge everyone, you'd realize they ALREADY know Guerin is having a bad year, and have said that. So should they stop having him on? Should they declare a man worthless after half of a bad season? Use you brain people. Nobody played last year. Two years ago, you guys weren't on here saying Guerin is worthless, and that BaD radio is soft.